My papers are listed below.
Working Papers
- The Civil Society Organizations effect: A mixed-methods analysis of bottom-up accountability in Brazilian public policy
with Juliana Sakai, Bianca Mondo and Natália Paiva.
This paper examines the effect of bottom-up accountability on public service delivery. We differentiate between information-driven interventions and the mobilization and monitoring efforts of organized Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), and argue that the latter type of interventions can can drive significant policy change. The study evaluates the effectiveness of the Obra Transparente project by Brazilian NGO Transparˆencia Brasil, engaging 21 local CSOs in South and Southeast Brazil. Our findings emphasize the importance of sustained, coordinated efforts by socially embedded CSOS. These efforts, involving direct engagement with municipal officials and ensuring that their complains cannot be ignored lead to more substantial outcomes when compared with citizens informationdriven. Keywords: accountability, Civil Society Organizations, mixed methods, community-driven development, public policy.
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2. [As implicações metodológicas da Revolução da Credibilidade e Inferência Bayesiana para a pesquisa qualitativa causal](https://github.com/mgaldino/quali-credibility/blob/main/paper_dados_format_quali_v4.pdf)
Este trabalho examina as implicações da Revolução da Credibilidade para as pesquisas qualitativas causais. O objetivo é demonstrar que a suposta superioridade da metodologia quantitativa sobre a qualitativa, implícita no trabalho de KKV e na visão de muitos cientistas sociais, é sem fundamento e ignora a moderna ciência da inferência causal. Com base na distinção entre identificação causal e inferência estatística, e no uso da inferência Bayesiana, o artigo evidencia que muitas críticas aos métodos qualitativos são improcedentes, especialmente a suposta incapacidade de generalizar resultados, que também está presente em estudos quantitativos. As conclusões destacam que a Revolução da Credibilidade, combinada com a inferência Bayesiana, permite o fortalecimento da pesquisa qualitativa quando seriamente incorporada. O trabalho apresenta ilustrações de metodologias qualitativas aplicadas que apontam esses novos desenvolvimentos, como o rastreamento de processo Bayesiano e queries causais. <\div>
3. [Efeito dos fundamentos morais sobre o engajamento político em redes sociais: um estudo experimental de campo](https://github.com/juliatachima/MFT_IC/blob/main/Manuscripts/article_MFT_Galdino_Tachima.pdf)
With Julia Tachima.
With Julia Tachima.
Este estudo investiga a influência dos fundamentos morais no engajamento político em mídias sociais em contextos não eleitorais no Brasil. Utilizando a Teoria dos Fundamentos Morais (MFT), exploramos como apelos morais direcionados — como autoridade e lealdade para públicos conservadores — impactam os níveis de engajamento (curtidas, comentários, compartilhamentos) em plataformas como Facebook e Instagram. Em parceria com a organização da sociedade civil Sou da Paz, conduzimos um experimento de campo direcionado a grupos ideologicamente distintos, incluindo Progressistas, Conservadores Cristãos, Empreendedores e pessoas de baixa renda. Cada grupo recebeu mensagens impulsionadas sobre uso de câmeras corporais por policiais. Nossos resultados indicam que a estruturação moral das mensagens aumentou significativamente o engajamento, com segmentos conservadores apresentando até 30% mais engajamento do que progressistas, que receberam mensagens neutras. Esses resultados contribuem para os campos da comunicação política, demonstrando como a segmentação ideológica e os apelos morais podem intensificar o engajamento online no Sul Global. O estudo oferece insights práticos para organizações da sociedade civil que buscam mobilizar apoiadores e influenciar o discurso público, ampliando a aplicação da MFT para novos contextos sociopolíticos e geográficos.
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4. The effects of elections in affective dynamics and differentiation: a longitudinal study during the 2022 Brazilian elections.
With Adriano Costa, Elaine Torres, Mateus Silvestrin, Felix Atalaya, Thiago Desenzi and Claudinei Biazoli.
With Adriano Costa, Elaine Torres, Mateus Silvestrin, Felix Atalaya, Thiago Desenzi and Claudinei Biazoli.
Previous studies have examined the effects of election outcomes on various aspects such as positive and negative affect, cortisol levels, mental health, happiness, distress, stress, and sleep. However, none have explored the impact of elections on emotion differentiation. This study evaluates the effect of the Brazilian 2022 national elections on emotional dynamics and emotion differentiation. An online ecological survey was conducted with a representative sample of the Brazilian population (N = 1793) before and after the elections. A 26-item Brazilian-Portuguese affective scale was administered for seven days starting two weeks before the election, and an additional seven days of data were collected following the release of the election results. The study examined changes in affective states, with significant increases in negative emotions (e.g., fear, anger, sadness) and a reduction in emotion differentiation observed after the election. The influence of conservatism on emotional responses was also assessed, revealing that more conservative individuals experienced less intense negative emotions and higher levels of positive emotions. These findings suggest that elections, as significant sociopolitical events, lead to notable shifts in emotional states and impact how emotions are differentiated, providing new insights into the relationship between sociopolitical stress and emotional experiences.
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### Peer-reviewed Publications (last five years)
1. [Bottom-up accountability and public service provision: Evidence from a field experiment in Brazil](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2053168020914444)
with Danilo Freire and Umberto Mignozzetti, Research & Politics, 7(2), 2020.
with Danilo Freire and Umberto Mignozzetti, Research & Politics, 7(2), 2020.
Does local oversight improve public service delivery? We study the effect of a mobile phone application that allows citizens to monitor school construction projects in Brazilian municipalities. The app prompts users to submit data about construction sites, sends such crowdsourced information to independent engineers, and contacts the mayors’ offices about project delays. Our results show that the app has a null impact on school construction indicators. Additionally, we find that politicians are unresponsive to individual requests. The results question the impact of bottom-up monitoring on public service performance and suggest that interventions targeted at other groups, or focused on different issues, may produce better policy outcomes. <\div>
### Books Manuscripts
The books below are in Portuguese only:
1. [Introduction to Regression](https://mgaldino.github.io/book-regression/)
2. [Introduction to Game Theory](https://mgaldino.github.io/Teoria-dos-Jogos/)
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